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Analysis of the match between Manchester City and Nottingham Forest
There are plenty of reasons to believe in a victory for Manchester City in this clash. Pep Guardiola’s side have won 4 of their last 5 Premier League meetings with Nottingham Forest (1 defeat), including a 2-1 win at the City Ground earlier this season.
Not only do they dominate the head-to-head record, but Manchester City have also been outstanding at home, winning 16 of their last 19 Premier League matches (2 draws, 1 loss) since April 2025 — at least three more victories than any other team in that period. Notably, under Pep, City have won 24 of their 26 Premier League matches played on Wednesdays (UK time) at the Etihad (2 draws), averaging 2.85 points per game. This is the best record of any team under a single manager when playing at home on a specific weekday in Premier League history (minimum 10 matches).
In addition, Guardiola has a particularly strong record against Portuguese managers. He has won 17 of his last 20 Premier League encounters against them (1 draw, 2 losses), including two victories over Vitor Pereira — when the latter was in charge of Wolves — in May 2025 (1-0) and August 2025 (4-0).
On the other hand, all three of Nottingham’s Premier League visits to the Etihad have ended in defeat, with an aggregate score of 0-11. This is one of only three instances of a team failing to score while conceding 10 or more goals away from home in the competition, alongside Birmingham City (0-17 at Old Trafford) and Bradford City (0-10 at Old Trafford).
As for Pereira, his personal record this season is far from impressive. Across spells with Wolves (10 matches) and Nottingham (2 matches), he has yet to register a single Premier League win (2 draws, 10 defeats). In league history, only Paul Jewell (24 matches with Derby in 2007/08) and Terry Connor (13 matches with Wolves in 2011/12) endured longer winless runs in a single season.
